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It doesn’t matter whether or not foreign capitals use this expression; qualifications can’t change the reality. Nevertheless, the words they use are the expression of their political choices.Since day one, the European Union has expressed its concern about what is going on in Egypt. The EU’s representatives didn’t use the word “coup” either, but they have at least publicly announced that they don’t approve of Morsi’s eviction from power like this, and they have called for his immediate release. The EU’s position is probably the result of their respect for democratic principles or maybe Brussels just fears a civil war in Egypt if something happens to Morsi. What is more interesting is that following the coup in Cairo, the EU has become quite silent about Syria. Maybe the Europeans have finally decided that it is not a good time to make the Russians angry.In the meantime, the United States has been more indulgent toward Egypt’s new rulers, and Washington’s position has been quite different from that of the Europeans. The US is getting used to the idea that Syria will remain in the Russian influence zone, but they have one condition: Egypt, in return, must remain under US influence. It looks much like the Cold War-era arrangements, and this is not surprising. Russia is already acting as a Cold War-era superpower, given its East Asia policy or the military maneuvers it undertakes nowadays.
In case of confrontation with Russia, the US would like to see its European partners on its side. However, the EU seems to have no intention of making a choice between Russia and the US. Nonetheless, the US has waited long enough for its European partners to reach a solid decision about the union’s strategic stance. Indeed there is no time to lose as the Russian army has launched its biggest military drill since Soviet times with 160,000 soldiers in the Pacific region; besides, a war can start any moment between the two Koreas, and the tension is rising between Russia and Japan over the Kuril Islands.
In a time when the world’s center of gravity moves towards East Asia, the US doesn’t want to lose much energy with what is going on in Egypt because American decision makers prefer these days to look at the big picture, meaning the global balance of power. This is maybe not fair, but this is how international relations work.
As to other partners of the US, we know that Saudi Arabia and Qatar are quite happy about the coup in Egypt; Israel, too, is probably comfortable with it but prefers to keep a low profile for now.
Turkey, on the contrary, has not at all adopted a low profile. Ankara clearly stated that it doesn’t recognize the new Egyptian government and refused to receive their representatives. The Turkish government’s position is understandable, as it had a special relationship with Morsi and his team, and it is not that easy to change this position suddenly. Moreover, the Turkish government wouldn’t like to be accused of betrayal by the supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood.
Nevertheless, the game has changed in Egypt, and one has to live with that. In international relations, it is never wise to support only one player in a foreign country. The political balances shift very quickly in the Middle East, no matter whether we like it or not.
The European Union, too, has condemned the coup, but this didn’t stop EU representatives from talking to Egypt’s new government. Success in foreign policy is to be able to sit at the table in every circumstance. When you refuse to talk to people, you also lose the chance to influence them, and you push them towards your rivals. In brief, to talk is always better than to ignore.
Prof. Dr. Beril DEDEOĞLU
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